Raup 4 Persen lagi, Prabowo-Gibran Akhiri Pilpres, akankah Terwujud?

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RADAR TANGSEL RATAS – Prabowo-Gibran hanya butuh 4 persen lagi untuk dapat mengakhiri pertarungan Pilpres 2024. Akankah ini terwujud?

Demikian diungkapkan Denny Januar Ali, pendiri/peneliti Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) Denny J. A. Kata Denny J. A., sapaan akrab Denny Januar Ali, belakangan ini, ia banyak mendapat pertanyaan “seksi”.

“Akankah Pemilu Presiden 2024 ini berakhir satu putaran saja? Inilah pertanyaan yang paling hot, yang paling seksi akhir-akhir ini,” ucap Denny J. A., dalam rilisnya yang diterima awak redaksi Kantor Berita ratas.id RADAR TANGSEL, Kamis, 18 Januari 2024.

Itu, kata dia, terutama karena hasil dari aneka lembaga survei. “Elektabilitas Prabowo dan Gibran sudah cukup tinggi sekali. Survei terakhir LSI Denny J. A. yang data lapangannya tanggal 3 sampai 11 Januari 2024, dukungan kepada Prabowo dan Gibran menaik lagi di angka 46,6%,” paparnya.

Ini berarti, sambung pria berkaca mata itu, pasangan tersebut hanya membutuhkan 4% lagi tambahan dukungan untuk menembus the magic number: 50%. “Ini angka untuk menang satu putaran saja. Berbagai lembaga survei yang kredibel lainnya juga menunjukkan elektabilitas yang mirip,” urainya.

“Sementara, kita tahu aturan konstitusi menyatakan: pilpres akan selesai hanya satu putaran saja, menurut undang-undang Dasar ’45, Pasal 6A, Ayat 3, hanya jika salah satu pasangan menang lebih dari 50%. Ditambah lagi, dukungannya minimal lebih dari 20%, yang tersebar di lebih separuh provinsi. Karena, sekarang ini, ada 38 provinsi, harus ada di di 20 provinsi yang dukungan pada satu pasangan di atas 20% pula,” papar dia.

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Mungkinkah Prabowo-Gibran mencapai posisi itu, untuk menang satu putaran saja? “Yang pertama kita ingat adalah catatan sejarah mengenai pemilu presiden di tahun 2009. Ini datanya. Di tahun 2009 juga bertarung tiga pasang capres dan cawapres. Ada Megawati dan Prabowo, pasangan SBY dan Budiono, kemudian juga Jusuf Kalla dan Wiranto,” kisahnya.

Saat itu, diungkapkannya, SBY-Budiono, yang juga nomor urut dua, menang satu putaran saja. “Saya tahu persis lekak-lekuk soal ini karena saya sendiri yang memimpin kampanye Gerakan Sosial Pilpres Satu Putaran Saja. Jejak digitalnya bisa ditelusuri. Saat itu, saya kobarkan kampanye gerakan itu, membuat iklan di TV, di radio, di koran. Saya mainkan pula aneka diskusi mengapa kita perlu pilpres selesai satu putaran saja,” cetusnya.

“Alhamdulillah, kala itu saya pun diserang dari kanan dan kiri, dari depan dan belakang. Habis- habisan saya dihujat di warung kopi, dikritik hingga stasiun TV. Saat itu, orang banyak tak percaya pilpres bisa berlangsung dan selesai satu putaran saja. Kemudian, terjadilah. Memang Pilpres 2009 selesai satu putaran saja untuk kemenangan SBY-Boediono,” tambahnya.

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Ia pun diberi penghargaan oleh PWI Jakarta sebagai Newsmaker of the Election 2009. “Itu karena Gerakan Satu Putaran Saja yang saya pimpin dianggap menjadi pusat berita.
Isu itu menyedot banyak sekali perhatian. Sekaligus, isu satu putaran saja menghilangkan dan menenggelamkan banyak sekali berita penting lain,” tandasnya.

Mengapa ia berani kampanyekan SBY menang satu putaran saja di Pilpres 2009? “Itu karena saya memegang data survei saya sendiri, LSI Denny JA. Data menunjukkan secara konsisten. Memang SBY dan Boediono, sebulan sebelum hari pemungutan suara, elektabilitasnya konsisten di atas 50%.
Aman bagi saya membuat prediksi, yang digembar-gemborkan, SBY-Boediono akan menang satu putaran saja,” tukas dia.

Bagaimana dengan Prabowo-Gibran?

Memang, Prabowo-Gibran, saat ini elektabilitasnya belum mencapai 50%, imbuh dia. Lanjut Denny, dukungan pada mereka hanya 46,6%. “Tapi, dilihat dari trennya, pelan-pelan elektabilitas mereka menuju ke sana. Memang, jika pilpres berlangsung selesai hanya satu putaran saja, ada tiga keuntungannya,” terang dia.

Pertama, Denny menyebut, begitu banyak dana yang dihemat karena tidak perlu lagi putaran ke-2. “Biaya putaran kedua itu sekitar 14 triliun rupiah. Dana sebesar ini bisa digunakan untuk meningkat kualitas pendidikan. Ia juga bisa digunakan untuk lebih memberikan gizi kepada banyak keluarga yang kurang mampu,” sebut dia.

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Keuntungan ke-2, ia menjelaskan, jika Pilpres selesai hanya satu putaran saja, maka kita dapat menghemat ketegangan politik selama 4,5 bulan. “Pencoblosan suara putaran pertama tanggal 14 Februari 2024. Itulah hari terakhir ketegangan politik pemilu. Tapi, jika pilpres dua putaran, hari terakhir pencoblosannya mundur 4,5 bulan lagi, ke tanggal 26 Juni 2024. Gaduh politik akan lebih kencang lagi. Polarisasi akan semakin membelah masyarakat. Aneka berita yang panas hingga hoax akan lebih heboh lagi,” ia berujar.

“Itu semua akan hilang jika kita berhasil membuat pilpres selesai hanya satu putaran saja. Ke-3, transisi pemerintahan akan lebih matang disiapkan. Ini karena sudah lebih pasti siapa pasangan capres dan cawapres yang akan terpilih lebih awal. Itulah tiga keuntungan jika pilpres selesai putaran saja. Tapi, mungkinkah Gibran dan Prabowo di 2024 ini mengulangi kisah sukses SBY-Boediono di 2009? Masih ada rentang waktu sebulan lagi bagi Prabowo dan Gibran untuk menambah dukungannya. Tambahan 4 persen lagi,” pungkas Denny.

Selengkapnya, pembaca dan pemirsa dapat melihat di link Channel YouTube ratas tv di bawah ini.  (AGS)

1 KOMENTAR

  1. So when you’re coaching to get a much bigger chest at residence, you’ll have
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    You then slowly lift the handles upward to shoulder level, quite than the downward movement of cable flyes.

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    This variation of the chest flye targets your chest and shoulders to construct muscle energy
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    The angle of the cable overhead press can assist recruit new muscle fiber that’s
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    Lie on a decline bench, holding a dumbbell in each hand with palms dealing with one another.
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    As A Outcome Of you’re shifting your weight from one facet to the opposite,
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    Practice diamond push-ups by bringing your arms too shut collectively to form a diamond or triangle form beneath your chest.
    And Little Doubt, push-ups are among the many finest
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    Your feet should be flat on the floor together
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    It’s an efficient bodyweight train for constructing
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    To understand the internal chest muscle group, it’s essential to know the anatomy of the chest muscles and acknowledge its advantages.
    When coaching the inner chest, varied components
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    For 2-3 weeks, couple up a large muscle group (legs, again, chest) with a smaller muscle group
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    Especially when accomplished with dumbbells, this train works the inner
    chest by way of its fullest vary of movement, which is an important component
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    Crossing your hands over each other (uncrossing the cables) at the start position increases the vary of motion. Seated Cable Rows are an excellent cable train for constructing center again muscular tissues, and they also work on the lower again. The
    cable towers enable you to set the angle at any level from the highest to bottom.

    He spends his free time on the gym, on his surfboard or staying up late watching sports
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    This is the place isolation workout routines, similar to flyes or the Pec Deck Machine,
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    The seated cable chest press is an effective train for targeting the chest muscle tissue whereas also participating the triceps and shoulders.
    To carry out the exercise, sit on a bench going through the cable machine and seize the handles along with your palms
    going through down.

    References:

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